Blogs from Michael_Novakhov (21 sites): The FBI News Review: Crime and Criminology from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: #Russianpropaganda and #Trump #polls #statistical #study – #GoogleSearch google.com/search?q=Russi…

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July 01, 2019
Crime and Criminology from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: #Russianpropaganda and #Trump #polls #statistical #study – #GoogleSearch google.com/search?q=Russi…
Crime and Criminology from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: #NEWS #Russian #propaganda may really have #helped #Trump: “…the weeks when #RussianTrolls were accumulating likes and retweets on #Twitter, that activity reliably foreshadowed gains for #Trump in the #opinionpolls,” wrote #DamianRuck, in an article…” trumpandtrumpism.com/mike-novas-sha… pic.twitter.com/FHKUJ0Ldvk
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“Christopher Wray” – Google News: Congress Stalled on Election Security – Wall Street Journal

Crime and Criminology from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: #Russianpropaganda and #Trump #polls #statistical #study – #GoogleSearch google.com/search?q=Russi…

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#Russianpropaganda and #Trump #polls #statistical #study – #GoogleSearch google.com/search?q=Russi… Posted by mikenov on Monday, July 1st, 2019 9:24pm mikenov on Twitter Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites)
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#NEWS #Russian #propaganda may really have #helped #Trump: “…the weeks when #RussianTrolls were accumulating likes and retweets on #Twitter, that activity reliably foreshadowed gains for #Trump in the
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4:59 PM 7/1/2019 – #RECENTPOSTS trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/459… Posted by mikenov on Monday, July 1st, 2019 9:01pm mikenov on Twitter Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites)
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Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf addresses the media in Harrisburg, Pa., last Friday, the day he signed legislation known as the Clean Slate Act that is touted as a way to give offenders a fresh start.
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WASHINGTON—Three years after a Russian campaign to disrupt the 2016 election first came into view, Congress remains stuck over how to respond, with lawmakers at an impasse over the best way to combat the hacking and influence efforts that Moscow used to shape the last presidential contest.
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Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠: What Does a Crooked Election Look Like?

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from Scientific American Content: Global.

For voters around the world, including the millions of Americans who will cast ballots in the midterms up to and on November 6, an election is democracy in action—an opportunity to make their voices heard, have a say in how their government is run and, if necessary, throw the bums out. It is a thoroughly political exercise, or so it would seem.

But to Peter Klimek, who works in the emerging field of electoral forensics, an election is something else as well. “Basically it is a huge, standardized social experiment,” he says. “What you are doing is taking the population of a country and segmenting it into different subpopulations—the eligible voters in their separate polling stations. Then you are having each one of them answer the same questions.”

And because huge experiments like elections follow the law of large numbers,  a bedrock principle of probability, those answers from the voting data should show “certain statistical regularities,” says Klimek, who studies complex systems at Medical University of Vienna. When they do not, when there are instead statistical anomalies, that other F–word—fraud—may be the reason.

That appears to be the case with the results of Turkey’s 2017 constitutional referendum and its 2018 presidential election, which Klimek and colleagues analyze in a paper published earlier this month in PLOS ONE. Using their own set of statistical tools, the researchers identified multiple irregularities in both elections that they attribute to systematic ballot stuffing (submission of multiple ballots per person during the election) and voter rigging (defined as coercion or intimidation of voters). In the case of the constitutional referendum they wrote, “removing such ballot-stuffing characteristic anomalies from the data would tip the overall balance from a majority of ‘No’ to a majority of ‘Yes’ votes.” Klimek says, “We’ve showed that you can develop a unique tool set that allows you not only to screen a data set for potential signs of fraud but also to identify the specific methods used.” One of the most important features of such forensic tool kits (others in the field have created their own) is their portability. They can be used to analyze elections around the world, and a physical presence is not necessary. All that’s required is the voting data, ideally at the level of individual polling stations, which can usually be downloaded from official government Web sites.

There is clearly a need. A 2010 analysis of data from elections conducted in more than 170 countries between 1978 and 2004, published on the Social Science Research Network, found signs of some cheating in 61 percent of the countries, and major problems in 27 percent of them. Since the early 2000s various research groups, including Klimek’s, have used forensic tools to examine elections in multiple countries including Venezuela, Kenya, Cambodia, South Africa, Bangladesh and Argentina.

Although the new paper from Klimek’s group includes a disclaimer that it is “by no means direct proof of electoral fraud,” it makes a strong case the Turkish elections were marred by malpractice. And, the authors wrote, the patterns of irregularities in the two elections, held 14 months apart, were barely distinguishable from each other. “We found exactly the same malpractices in exactly the same districts in 2018 as we did the year before,” Klimek says. Making that kind of connection is key to preventing fraud in future elections, he adds. “If you want to get some policy-relevant actions out of this kind of research, you need to be able to tell what happened with which likelihood in which geographical area,” he notes.

The researchers worked with data from the official Web site of the Turkish election commission. To detect signs of ballot stuffing, they used the number of voters, the number of valid ballots cast (turnout) and the total votes tallied by the winners (‘Yes’ in 2017’s referendum and for Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2018) to create an “election fingerprint” for each of the polling stations they analyzed.

For the 2017 referendum, they crunched the numbers from 153,701 stations, grouped in 28,447 neighborhoods. For the 2018 election, they looked at 168,377 stations in 44,796 neighborhoods. When the data was plotted in two dimensions and compared with standardized fingerprints from trustworthy elections with normal distributions, Klemik’s team found “highly significant statistical support” for ballot stuffing in 11 percent of the polling stations they analyzed. (Ballot stuffing inflates both turnout and the percentage of winning votes.)

Election fingerprint analysis also turned up evidence of possible voter rigging at small, rural polling stations—which are less likely to be monitored by poll observers than large urban stations are, and where it is easier to identify the political leanings of individual voters. “That makes it much easier to conduct certain malpractices,” Klimek says, such as intimidating voters with an excessive police or military presence.

Walter Mebane, a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan and co-author of a 2017 guide to election forensics for the U.S. Agency for International Development, urges caution when attributing election anomalies to possible fraud. “The problem is that many of the patterns that look irregular according to many statistical methods can be produced by strategic behavior, or normal politics,” he says. “You can tell that the pattern was manipulated or looks unusual, but you can’t tell why.”

Figuring out the “why” is the next big challenge, according to Mebane, a pioneer of the field. “Politics is weird, to use a technical term. All kinds of bizarre things can happen. I think the limit of election forensics, and this is the frontier of my research right now, is to try to see how well we can discriminate frauds from human behavior.”

An even more basic challenge faces researchers who want to use forensic tool kits to analyze U.S. elections—getting the data. “The way elections take place and are administered in the U.S. is not really up to the quality standards in other countries,” says Klimek, who tried and failed to apply some of his methods to the 2008 election. “The data quality was not good enough.” In most states, access to voter registration data is restricted mainly to the political parties, the candidates and some companies that work with them, Mebane says. 

After a 2016 presidential election marred by allegations of foreign meddling, the midterm contest looms amid concerns about voter suppression in Georgia and other states as well as unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud by undocumented aliens. The most unexpected takeaway from electoral forensics may be that it is easier to analyze Russian elections than those in the U.S. “It’s really not much work to do this kind of analysis once you’ve got the data,” Klimek says. “With the algorithms we are talking about, it can be done in a couple of hours.”

Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: #Russianpropaganda and #Trump #polls #statistical #study – #GoogleSearch google.com/search?q=Russi…

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#Russianpropaganda and #Trump #polls #statistical #study – #GoogleSearch google.com/search?q=Russi…


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: #NEWS #Russian #propaganda may really have #helped #Trump: “…the weeks when #RussianTrolls were accumulating likes and retweets on #Twitter, that activity reliably foreshadowed gains for #Trump in the #opinionpolls,” wrote #DamianRuck, in an article…” trumpandtrumpism.com/mike-novas-sha… pic.twitter.com/FHKUJ0Ldvk

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#NEWS
#Russian #propaganda may really have #helped #Trump:
“…the weeks when #RussianTrolls were accumulating likes and retweets on #Twitter, that activity reliably foreshadowed gains for #Trump in the
#opinionpolls,” wrote #DamianRuck, in an article…”
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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: 4:59 PM 7/1/2019 – #RECENTPOSTS trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/459…

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4:59 PM 7/1/2019 – #RECENTPOSTS trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/459…


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: 3:26 PM 7/1/2019 – #TRUMP AND #TRUMPISM #NEWSREVIEW trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/326…

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3:26 PM 7/1/2019 – #TRUMP AND #TRUMPISM #NEWSREVIEW trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/326…


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): Twitter search feed for: michael novakhov.: 3:26 PM 7/1/2019 – #TRUMP AND #TRUMPISM #NEWSREVIEW https://trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/326-pm-7-1-2019-trump-and-trumpism-news-review/ …

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3:26 PM 7/1/2019 – AND https://trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/326-pm-7-1-2019-trump-and-trumpism-news-review/ …

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Blogs from Michael_Novakhov (21 sites): The FBI News Review: “fbi surveillance” – Google News: Serious Alarm Over Report FBI Has Asked US College to Monitor Chinese Students – YubaNet

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July 01, 2019
“fbi surveillance” – Google News: Serious Alarm Over Report FBI Has Asked US College to Monitor Chinese Students – YubaNet
“fbi” – Google News: The FBI Hopes These Cute Puppies Will Distract You From Unconstitutional Civil Asset Forfeitures – Reason
“fbi reform” – Google News: Lawyers file motion for ‘completely unreasonable and unjust’ charges to be dropped against Alabama woman after fetal death – Yahoo News
“fbi” – Google News: WATCH: Clive Owen and Rosamund Pike Play FBI Agents in ‘The Informer’ Trailer – Anglophenia

“fbi surveillance” – Google News: Serious Alarm Over Report FBI Has Asked US College to Monitor Chinese Students – YubaNet

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New York, July 1, 2019 – Reports that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is reaching out to U.S. universities to urge monitoring of Chinese students and scholars raises serious concerns about privacy rights, racial profiling, and academic freedoms, PEN America said.
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“fbi” – Google News: The FBI Hopes These Cute Puppies Will Distract You From Unconstitutional Civil Asset Forfeitures – Reason

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Law enforcement officials have tried every trick to attempt to convince Americans to accept civil asset forfeiture, the controversial process that allows the police to take and keep the money and property of those who are suspected, though not convicted, of criminal activity.
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“fbi reform” – Google News: Lawyers file motion for ‘completely unreasonable and unjust’ charges to be dropped against Alabama woman after fetal death – Yahoo News

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Lawyers file motion for ‘completely unreasonable and unjust’ charges to be dropped against Alabama woman after fetal death Yahoo NewsLawyers said the state of Alabama charged Marshae Jones using a “flawed and twisted rationale” that “ignores the law and ignores reason.”
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“fbi” – Google News: WATCH: Clive Owen and Rosamund Pike Play FBI Agents in ‘The Informer’ Trailer – Anglophenia

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Clive Owen (Duplicity) and Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) have both signed on for the crime-drama The Informer. The two play FBI agents who are handlers for an informant, as the title suggests.
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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: 7:38 AM 7/1/2019 – #Trump #and #Trumpism – #Posts #Review trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/738…

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7:38 AM 7/1/2019 – #Trump #and #Trumpism – #Posts #Review trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/738…


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): Twitter search feed for: michael novakhov.: 7:38 AM 7/1/2019 – #Trump #and #Trumpism – #Posts #Review https://trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/738-am-7-1-2019-trump-and-trumpism-posts-review/ …

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Blogs from Michael_Novakhov (21 sites): The FBI News Review: News / MN Newsletter // July 01

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July 01, 2019
The Best Movies and TV Shows New to Netflix, Amazon and More in July – The New York Times
Own Some History: Tupac’s 1995 Prison ID Card Is Headed To Auction – Vibe
Here’s What Republicans Should Ask Robert Mueller When He Testifies – The Federalist
Newark native at heart of California cold-case murders in 1970s – The Newark Advocate
It’s Definitely Not Time To Move On From The Kealohas’ Corruption… – Honolulu Civil Beat

The Best Movies and TV Shows New to Netflix, Amazon and More in July – The New York Times

The New York Times
Watching is The New York Times’s TV and film recommendation website. Sign up for our twice-weekly newsletter here. If bingeing an entire season of a television show sounds like the perfect staycation, we’ve got you covered for July.
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Own Some History: Tupac’s 1995 Prison ID Card Is Headed To Auction – Vibe

Vibe
There is a short list of films that have helped capture the reality of the oppression, adversity, and trauma that come as a byproduct of being black in America, and Do The Right Thing is surely among them.
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Here’s What Republicans Should Ask Robert Mueller When He Testifies – The Federalist

The Federalist
When Democrats heard last week that Robert Mueller would testify before the House judiciary and oversight committees on July 17, they were as giddy as a 72-year-old Jerry Nadler waiting to question Hope Hicks.
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Newark native at heart of California cold-case murders in 1970s – The Newark Advocate

The Newark Advocate
CLOSE This photo from the 1963 Bad Kreuznach American High School yearbook shows John Arthur Getreu, who was 18 when he murdered and raped Margaret Williams, a 15-year-old freshman. (Photo: Submitted)
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It’s Definitely Not Time To Move On From The Kealohas’ Corruption… – Honolulu Civil Beat

Honolulu Civil Beat
Until late last week it was still fun to think of who might play Louis and Katherine Kealoha in a movie version of their criminal saga. It’s not fun anymore. What began as a mild mystery over a stolen mailbox has led to guilty verdicts for the Kealohas and two police officers on charges of conspiracy and obstruction.
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Crime and Criminology from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): “political crimes” – Google News: Why Hong Kong has become a city of protests – Washington Post
Crime and Criminology from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: 7:38 AM 7/1/2019 – #Trump #and #Trumpism – #Posts #Review trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/738…
“fbi surveillance” – Google News: The ‘Going Dark’ Debate: It’s Back – GovInfoSecurity.com
“fbi reform” – Google News: Pennsylvania Begins Automatically Sealing Millions of Criminal Records – Governing
“fbi criticism” – Google News: Zarif Confirms Iran Surpassed Caps on Enriched Uranium Stockpile – Yahoo News

Crime and Criminology from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): “political crimes” – Google News: Why Hong Kong has become a city of protests – Washington Post

FBI from Michael_Novakhov (28 sites)
Protesters holding umbrellas face off police officers in anti-riot gear in Hong Kong on Monday, July 1, 2019. (Kin Cheung) On Monday, thousands of protesters turned out again in Hong Kong, a city of 7.4 million people that has seen protests of unprecedented scale in recent weeks.
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Crime and Criminology from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: 7:38 AM 7/1/2019 – #Trump #and #Trumpism – #Posts #Review trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/738…

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7:38 AM 7/1/2019 – #Trump #and #Trumpism – #Posts #Review trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/738… Posted by mikenov on Monday, July 1st, 2019 11:43am mikenov on Twitter Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites)
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“fbi surveillance” – Google News: The ‘Going Dark’ Debate: It’s Back – GovInfoSecurity.com

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Encryption & Key Management , Governance , Privacy The ‘Going Dark’ Debate: It’s Back Trump Administration Reportedly Weighs Forcing Tech Firms to Use Weak Crypto Mathew J. Schwartz (euroinfosec) • July 1, 2019 Encryption comes in two forms: Strong or weak.
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“fbi reform” – Google News: Pennsylvania Begins Automatically Sealing Millions of Criminal Records – Governing

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By Samantha Melamed It was late on Oct.
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“fbi criticism” – Google News: Zarif Confirms Iran Surpassed Caps on Enriched Uranium Stockpile – Yahoo News

FBI from Michael_Novakhov (28 sites)
(Bloomberg) — Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif confirmed that his country has exceeded limits set as part of the 2015 nuclear accord for its stockpile of 3.67% enriched uranium, state-run Iranian Students News Agency reported.
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Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠: RECENT POSTS – 9:48 AM 7/1/2019 | Trump and Trumpism – Review Of News And Opinions

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Michael_Novakhov
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from Trump and Trumpism – Review Of News And Opinions.

RECENT POSTS – 9:48 AM 7/1/2019

Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): Twitter search feed for: michael novakhov.: #RECENTPOSTS – 9:48 AM 7/1/2019 https://trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/recent-posts-948-am-7-1-2019/ …

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– 9:48 AM 7/1/2019 https://trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/recent-posts-948-am-7-1-2019/ …

Twitter search feed for: michael novakhov.

Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites)


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: Insinuendo: Why the Muller Report Doth Repeat So Much realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/…

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Insinuendo: Why the Muller Report Doth Repeat So Much realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/…


Posted by

mikenov
on Monday, July 1st, 2019 9:03am

mikenov on Twitter

Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites)


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): Twitter search feed for: michael novakhov.: Insinuendo: Why the Muller Report Doth Repeat So Much https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/06/28/insinuendo_why_the_muller_report_doth_repeat_so_much_.html …

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Insinuendo: Why the Muller Report Doth Repeat So Much https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/06/28/insinuendo_why_the_muller_report_doth_repeat_so_much_.html …

Twitter search feed for: michael novakhov.

Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites)


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Saved Stories – None: Twitter Search / PalmerReport: Yes, Donald Trump really is going to prison https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/prison-really-yes-trump-don/18885 …

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Yes, Donald Trump really is going to prison https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/prison-really-yes-trump-don/18885 …

Twitter Search / PalmerReport

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Saved Stories – None: 1. Trump from Michael_Novakhov (197 sites): “Putin and American political process” – Google News: Russia’s Turn to the East: Expectations and the Reality – Valdai Discussion Club

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Russia’s Turn to the East: Expectations and the Reality  Valdai Discussion Club

In recent years, the turn to the East, or pivot to Asia, has been one of the most popular topics in the Russian political and media discourse. Assessments of this …

“Putin and American political process” – Google News

1. Trump from Michael_Novakhov (197 sites)

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Saved Stories – None: 1. Trump from Michael_Novakhov (197 sites): “analysis of trump electorate” – Google News: The economic expansion is now the longest on record – Axios

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The economic expansion is now the longest on record  Axios

The U.S. economy has never gone this long without a recession.

“analysis of trump electorate” – Google News

1. Trump from Michael_Novakhov (197 sites)

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Saved Stories – None: NPR News Now: NPR News: 07-01-2019 6AM ET

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Saved Stories – None: “Trump and Trumpism” – Google News: Trump’s predecessors knew better than to make July 4 about themselves – Washington Post

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Trump’s predecessors knew better than to make July 4 about themselves  Washington Post

Washington and Lincoln provide one model. The 44th president is choosing a different one.

“Trump and Trumpism” – Google News

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